'Since the Iraq war began in 2003, the Middle East has been split by its own not-so-cold war for regional domination between Iran and its allies (Syria, Hizballah and Hamas) and the U.S. and its allies (Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt). Though Russia has been a mostly peripheral player, it has often wound up on the opposite side of Washington. In 2005, Moscow agreed to help Iran develop a civilian nuclear reactor, infuriating the Bush administration, which claims that Iran's nuclear energy program is merely a cover for developing weapons. Russian also supplied Syria with weapons that wound up in the hands of Hizballah, the Lebanese anti-Israeli militant group. Israeli military sources say that these Russian weapons — especially advanced anti-tank rockets — were vital in enabling Hizballah to face down the Israeli army during its disastrous incursion into Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Russia in the Middle East and a regional 'Cold War'
Time's Andrew Lee Butters has an article on Russian engagement with Syria and whether this shows a more Middle Eastern-orientated foreign policy from Medvedev and Putin. Georgia's use of Israeli weapons against Russia, and Hezbollah's use of Russian weapons against Israel may well serve us an extra-factor for Russia to cooperate with Israel's enemies:
These tensions are now likely to grow as Russia flexes its muscles in a region where the U.S. is vulnerable. For one thing, Russia sees fewer and fewer reasons to tread lightly around Israel. During the 2006 Lebanon war, Russia condemned Hizballah actions as terrorism, and afterwards claimed it had made efforts to prevent weapons sales to Syria from helping Hizballah. But the war in Georgia highlighted that Israel is itself in a kind of arms race with Russia. Israel was supplying the Georgian army with weapons and Israeli security companies were training Georgian soldiers.'
I'm not sure about lumping the Middle East into two camps as he does, what with complicating factors such as domestic politics, Syrian-Israeli negotiations over the Golan Heights and sympathy for the Palestinians throughout the Arab world made the more complex by the division of power and claims to representation by Hamas and Fatah. Even the Shia-Sunni split doesn't make it any easier to frame regional politics in the Middle East with the clear definitions it is sometimes tempting to use. I'd struggle to see a Cold-War in Middle East in the current climate, though I don't feel it would be necessary to have Russian or even American involvement for one to ferment and develop, especially once the US has withdrawn from Iraq.
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