Obama and the Connected Middle East

Good, short piece in the Economist about how the new US President will find that many of the problems in the Middle East are in fact very much mutually dependent on each other. No situation exists in a vacuum, with regional developments being used to fuel rhetoric on the domestic stage.

The Israel/Palestine conflict, withdrawal from Iraq, growing Iranian influence and what will hopefully be the warming of Western-Syrian ties will all be affected by each other.

An extract:

'Get Iranians to start sending even lightly positive signals, and Israel's hardliners are undermined. Get an Israeli government willing to talk peace, and Palestinians sniff an opportunity to do the same. Encourage Syrian-Israeli talks, mediated by Turkey, and everyone in the neighbourhood feels a little more comfortable (except maybe Iran, which would feel pressure to get in on the good vibes or be isolated as Arabs, Americans and Israelis begin to reconcile). Drain the hate-swamp, ever so slowly, and fewer show up to kill themselves murdering Americans and civilians in Iraq. Make progress in Iraq, and Iran's options are curtailed. Curtail Iran's options, and Israel... see where this can go?'

We can certainly hope so. The whims of voters in Iraq, Israel and Iran will decide whether we are stuck with confrontational rhetoric or a real chance for moderation, democracy and peace. The election of a progressive US President might not be enough for the Middle East. The citizens, and the leaders they elect, have to want to solve these problems in a constructive and fair way too.